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The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:   What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach? A) 18,750 B) 19,500 C) 21,000 D) 22,000 E) 22,800 What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?


A) 18,750
B) 19,500
C) 21,000
D) 22,000
E) 22,800

F) D) and E)
G) A) and B)

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The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year.What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?


A) 100
B) 200
C) 400
D) 500
E) 800

F) B) and D)
G) All of the above

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Simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with no more than three independent variables.

A) True
B) False

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Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?


A) contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long term forecasts
B) penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts
C) sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain
D) increasing lead times for critical supply chain members
E) increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain

F) A) and C)
G) C) and D)

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The T in the model TAF = S+T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).

A) True
B) False

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Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?


A) associative forecast
B) consumer survey
C) series of questionnaires
D) developed in India
E) historical data

F) C) and D)
G) D) and E)

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A manager has been using a certain technique to forecast demand for gallons of ice cream for the past six periods.Actual and predicted amounts are shown below.Would a naive forecast have produced better results?

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Summary:
Current method: MA...

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What is the linear regression trend line for these data (t = 0 for spring, three years ago)?

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What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?


A) 20,000
B) 19,000
C) 17,500
D) 16,000
E) 15,000

F) D) and E)
G) B) and C)

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In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average must be known.

A) True
B) False

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Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

A) True
B) False

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What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with weights of .5, .3, and .2?


A) 163
B) 180
C) 300
D) 420
E) 510

F) C) and D)
G) D) and E)

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Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

A) True
B) False

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Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

A) True
B) False

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What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?


A) 2,600
B) 2,760
C) 2,800
D) 3,840
E) 3,000

F) A) and C)
G) C) and D)

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In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known which means that for brand new products this approach can't be used.

A) True
B) False

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Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?


A) executive opinions
B) sales force opinions
C) consumer surveys
D) the Delphi method
E) time series analysis

F) C) and D)
G) A) and E)

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Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts?


A) Assumption of a stable underlying causal system.
B) Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values.
C) Historical data is available on which to base the forecast.
D) Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items.
E) Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.

F) All of the above
G) C) and E)

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What is this week's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5?


A) 49.3
B) 50.6
C) 51.3
D) 65.4
E) 78.7

F) D) and E)
G) None of the above

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The naive approach to forecasting requires a linear trend line.

A) True
B) False

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